The Actual Rationale Behind Israel's Invasion Of Rafah.

With 1.5 million people stranded in Rafah, Israel is advancing its invasion without any discernible objectives. Israel's only recourse now that it hasn't been able to crush the resistance in Gaza is to slaughter more Palestinians.

James Coleman | 9th Many, 2024.

Smoke RISES FOLLOWING ISRAELI AIRSTRIKES ON THE JNEINA AND SALAM NEIGHBORHOODS IN RAFAH, MAY 8, 2024. (PHOTO credit:  ABED RAHIM KHATIB/DPA VIA ZUMA PRESS/APA IMAGES)

On May 6, when Israeli forces advanced into the southernmost portion of the Gaza Strip, the eastern edge of Rafah began to be invaded, more than 100,000 Palestinians were escaping to the al-Mawasi region west of Khan Younis, where Israeli forces previously withdrew in March. Since the start of the Israeli onslaught last October, many of them were on their eighth or ninth escape.

For months, Israeli officials had insisted on entering Rafah despite growing international pressure for Israel to halt their actions. Most of the 1.5 million Palestinians seeking shelter in the never-ending tent cities in and around Rafah are from the north and center of Gaza. In the event that Israeli troops assaulted the city, the UN issued a dire humanitarian warning.

That being said, Benjamin Netanyahu has been promising for weeks to attack Rafah. Israel's Prime Minister asserts that the invasion of Rafah is essential to accomplishing the war's declared objectives, including pressuring Hamas to agree to a prisoner swap agreement through "military pressure."

There is agreement in Israeli politics on the attack on Rafah. If Netanyahu doesn't carry out the invasion, itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, his two biggest far-right allies, have vowed to leave the governing coalition, raising the possibility of its disintegration. Yair Lapid, the leader of the opposition, has echoed Netanyahu's assertion that there are still four Hamas battalions in Rafah, but every other Israeli official has stated that they are in favor of some sort of action there.

Even with this understanding, the invasion's true objectives are still unknown. Since Israel's declared objectives don't match what is actually happening, analysts have come to the conclusion that the real purpose of the Rafah invasion is to complete the ethnic cleansing of Gaza and possibly set the stage for future attacks aimed at trying to reestablish the deterrence that was permanently destroyed on October 7.

An invasion without clear goals

According to Israeli officials, an invasion of Rafah is required since it is home to the last of Hamas's forces and will compel Hamas to engage in talks. However, none of the claims seem grounded in actuality.

First off, nothing suggests that the four "remaining" battalions of Hamas, who are confined in Rafah, are the organization's only fighting units. From the north to the south of Gaza, resistance activities by all Palestinian factions, particularly the armed Qassam Brigades of Hamas, have not stopped. Hamas fighters attacked Israeli troops in the "Netzarim corridor," the buffer zone Israel established south of Gaza City that essentially divided the Gaza Strip, two days prior to the start of the Rafah invasion. 

According to Israeli officials, an invasion of Rafah is required since it is home to the last of Hamas's forces and will compel Hamas to engage in talks. However, none of the claims seem grounded in actuality.

First of all, there is no evidence that Hamas's fighting strength has been whittled down to its four "remaining" battalions, which are encircled in Rafah. From Gaza's north to its south, resistance operations by all Palestinian factions, particularly Hamas's armed Qassam Brigades, have not stopped. The Gaza Strip is functionally divided by Israel's buffer zone south of Gaza City, known as the "Netzarim corridor," where Hamas gunmen struck Israeli troops two days prior to the start of the Rafah invasion. Four soldiers were killed and 10 more were wounded, three of them were critically injured, according to information that Israel has admitted so far.

Second, just before the Rafah invasion, Hamas declared that it had accepted a plan proposed by Egypt and Qatar, backed by the United States, that included the exchange of prisoners. That same evening, the relatives of Israeli prisoners chose to accept the arrangement instead o

f invading Rafah and staged a protest in Tel Aviv's streets. However, Netanyahu persisted in carrying out the invasion, casting doubt on the attack's actual goal.

‘Re-inventing’ the Zionist project

Various analysts have put up various theories regarding the real motivations behind the Rafah invasion. The majority usually point out that Netanyahu and his right-wing supporters are its main forces, with Netanyahu wanting to drag out the conflict in order to escape responsibility for October 7's mistakes and the right-wingers wanting to flatten and ethnically cleanse Gaza. Some think Netanyahu is stuck and is attempting to please his war cabinet members. To that end, he dispatches a diplomatic team to Cairo in order to win over "pragmatic" leaders like Gadi Eizenkot and Benny Gantz, while initiating the invasion in order to pacify hardliners like Smotrich and Ben-Gvir.

Although there are some truths to each of these arguments, they are far from sufficient to describe the real motivations behind the Rafah assault. The most significant thing they fail to acknowledge is that the entire Israeli political establishment is in favor of the invasion; the only things that separate them are the exact dates on which it should occur and the role that a prisoner swap will play.

Fears that the Zionist experiment's military performance in the war will decide its fate, particularly in light of the crushing blow to its deterrence on October 7, are the true cause of Israel's unwillingness to yield. 

Israeli colonial studies professor and organizer of Palestine's Popular University project, Khaled Odetallah claims that Israel is "retreating forward" with its attack on Rafah.

"The Zionist organization must make difficult decisions on all fronts," Odetallah stated to Mondoweiss. "There are no attainable aims in Rafah, no clear strategy for the campaign, and no success in achieving any of its declared objectives. This has a profound impact on Zionist society as a whole, considering the aftermath of the events of October 7.

According to Odetallah, "Netanyahu is only a small part of the picture." "The harsh fact that faces Zionist society is that it has been predicated in recent years on the notion that it is safe from any significant external threats. All of Israel's attempts to maintain stability and a sense of supremacy were dashed, including the internal fissures that had begun before to October 7.

In detail, Odetallah claims that "all of this has pushed 'Israel' to try and reinvent itself and the entire Zionist project, similar to 1948." Israel will attempt to "regenerate its own society," of which the army is a reflection, "by projecting force" onto its enemies, which essentially entails "displacing large numbers of Palestinians."

Throughout the present conflict, the displacement of Palestinians has been a primary issue, especially since the invasion of Rafah has been drawing near in recent weeks. Numerous times, Egypt has rejected the entry of hundreds of thousands of Palestinian refugees on its soil. On May 6, UNRWA declared that it will not assist in the evacuation of Palestinians from Rafah.

While Israeli settler groups have been pushing for the resettling of Gaza, with the vocal support of Ben-Gvir, Israel has persisted in refusing the return of all displaced Palestinians to the remains of their houses in the northern part of the Strip.

"A key component of how 'Israel' defines itself is the displacement of Palestinians before they can settle in their place and the projection of military superiority over the region," Odetallah told Mondoweiss. However, it appears that the international and regional community is not prepared to tolerate the widespread relocation of Gaza's population. The Zionist entity is forced to carry on with the conflict, advancing without end, in light of this new reality and with no way out of it.

Leaked documents revealed that the agreement that Hamas approved was largely the same one that the US had previously approved. In response to the invasion of Rafah, the United States declared on Tuesday that it has suspended the transfer of offensive weapons to Israel.

According to Odetallah, "the U.S. seems more interested in ending the current war in order to restore an atmosphere amenable for resuming Israeli-Arab normalization deals, especially with Saudi Arabia." But the basic foundation of the Zionist enterprise, which has lasted for a century, is under attack at this very time. For this reason, even if a truce is actually achieved in Gaza, it must reinvent itself and the battle will continue.

Odetallah concludes, "It is highly likely that the Zionist entity will carry on this war in various forms." "It will not only cover Gaza; it will also stretch to Palestine's northern border with Lebanon and other areas of its territory, such as the West Bank."

Odetallah predicts that "there will be bloodshed in every form that the war takes."

"Because it can no longer reestablish its prior sense of security and dominance," he claims. "It appears that the entity can only choose between blood, blood, and more blood."